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Freight in the Time of Covid: A Model of US Trucking
Quantitative spatial models typically treat trade costs as fixed and exogenous, abstracting from the freight transportation industry. I develop and estimate a model of the U.S. trucking sector that matches salient features of freight prices while remaining tractable enough to embed in a quantitative spatial framework. In this environment, trade costs arise endogenously as the market-clearing prices of freight services. I identify the model’s key supply parameter using instruments based on Covid-era shocks to U.S. container import volumes. A simple calibration of the spatial model suggests that changes in transport prices account for an important share of the post-Covid dispersion in goods inflation across U.S. cities. Finally, because transport supply is more elastic than transport demand, model-consistent decompositions suggest that market-share changes are primarily demand-driven, while freight-price changes primarily reflect shifts in drivers’ costs.
US Marine Corps Reserve, Logistics Officer, 2022-Present.
Platoon Commander, Company Executive Officer.
You can find my research in environmental epidemiology on Google Scholar.